VOLATILITY DROPS AS BITCOIN OUTPERFORMS U.S. STOCKS DURING MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

Bitcoin has become less volatile than U.S. stocks during the Iran-Israel conflict, as long-term holders tighten supply and institutional demand continues to grow. Analysts now expect prices to climb even higher.

In brief: 

₿- Crypto volatility has dropped below major U.S. stock indexes, reflecting a more mature market response despite rising geopolitical tensions.

₿- Long-term holders now control a record 14.53 million BTC, reducing available supply and fueling stronger institutional demand.

Bitcoin is showing expected resilience during the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, with data revealing that the cryptocurrency is currently less volatile than major U.S. stock indexes. As geopolitical tensions intensify in the Middle East, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively steady, even outperforming top tech stocks in terms of price stability.

Bitcoin volatility drops below stocks

Bitcoin has become less volatile than U.S. stocks during the Iran-Israel conflict, as long-term holders tighten supply and institutional demand continues to grow. Analysts now expect prices to climb even higher. According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility recently dropped to just 27%–28%. In comparison, the S&P 500 is around 30%, the Nasdaq 100 at 35%, and the “Magnificent 7” tech giants hover near 40%. Despite a brief 6% dip following U.S. airstrikes on Iran, Bitcoin quickly recovered, avoiding the panic-driven selloffs that were typical in previous global crises.

During the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Bitcoin’s volatility spiked above 60%. This time, however, its relative calm signals a shift toward maturity, making Bitcoin behave more like a stable asset than a speculative bet. Analysts believe this reflects growing investor confidence and a more seasoned market structure.

Long-term holders tighten Bitcoin supply

Another factor behind Bitcoin’s steady performance is the shrinking available supply. Blockchain data firm Glassnode reports that long-term holders now control a record 14.53 million BTC—nearly 70% of the total supply. Even more striking, over 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is held by just 216 entities, including ETFs, crypto exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries.

Bitcoin has become less volatile than U.S. stocks during the Iran-Israel conflict, as long-term holders tighten supply and institutional demand continues to grow. Analysts now expect prices to climb even higher. The high concentration of ownership reduces short-term trading pressure and has helped to stabilize Bitcoin’s price. As fewer coins are available on the market, institutional demand is exerting upward pressure.

Bullish outlook as demand grows

Crypto leaders like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL’s Eugene Cheung argue that central bank money printing and rising ETF inflows are fueling Bitcoin’s long-term rally. With institutional support growing, many analysts now believe Bitcoin could rise well above $100,000 in the coming months.

Some forecasts predict a price target of $150,000 by the end of 2025. If current trends hold, Bitcoin’s role as a reliable store of value during global uncertainty could become even more pronounced.

Stay informed, 
Rodcas Consulting Group